Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.054651 1.114149 1.175799 1.244572 1.319296 1.398194 1.488010
2026-02-08 0.942187 1.024205 1.112798 1.216072 1.333749 1.464374 1.621329
2026-02-15 0.878722 0.974052 1.080023 1.207458 1.357751 1.530895 1.747712
2026-02-22 0.836685 0.942123 1.062090 1.210100 1.389777 1.603467 1.880923
2026-03-01 0.791848 0.902767 1.031331 1.193261 1.394549 1.640376 1.969535
2026-03-08 0.747237 0.860525 0.993832 1.164627 1.381176 1.651651 2.023543
2026-03-15 0.716868 0.833442 0.972601 1.153834 1.388069 1.687167 2.109442
2026-03-22 0.702592 0.824927 0.973158 1.169555 1.428614 1.767365 2.259669
2026-03-29 0.683571 0.809380 0.963787 1.171442 1.450288 1.822689 2.378215
2026-04-05 0.670669 0.800739 0.962420 1.183128 1.484909 1.896741 2.528002
2026-04-12 0.649824 0.781022 0.945779 1.173413 1.489286 1.928097 2.616162
2026-04-19 0.639406 0.774192 0.945388 1.185146 1.523444 2.003091 2.775294
2026-04-26 0.616054 0.750228 0.922173 1.165569 1.513596 2.015203 2.840323
2026-05-03 0.591599 0.724077 0.895177 1.139666 1.493398 2.010758 2.878511
2026-05-10 0.575555 0.708470 0.881662 1.131820 1.498702 2.044527 2.981233
2026-05-17 0.564307 0.698815 0.875736 1.134227 1.518894 2.101859 3.127801
2026-05-24 0.547453 0.681048 0.858027 1.118885 1.511462 2.115042 3.198560
2026-05-31 0.527787 0.658905 0.833567 1.092775 1.486318 2.098287 3.214365
2026-06-07 0.514696 0.645364 0.820621 1.082927 1.485569 2.120677 3.302426
2026-06-14 0.510348 0.643651 0.824093 1.097270 1.522908 2.207562 3.517575
2026-06-21 0.502138 0.636318 0.819316 1.098991 1.540186 2.261613 3.675168
2026-06-28 0.497145 0.633291 0.820512 1.109648 1.572117 2.342438 3.893318
2026-07-05 0.486388 0.621863 0.809250 1.100789 1.571713 2.366601 3.998855